Explaining the Distribution of Firms Growth Rates

Empirical analyses on aggregated datasets have revealed a common exponential behavior in the shape of the probability density of the corporate growth rates. We present clearcut evidence on this topic using disaggregated data. We explain the observed regularities proposing a model in which the firms’ ability of taking up new business opportunities increases with the number of opportunities already exploited. A theoretical result is presented for the limiting case in which the number of firms and opportunities go to infinity. Moreover, using simulations, we show that even in a small industry the agreement with asymptotic results is almost complete.Firm Growth, Laplace Distribution, Urn Processes

Repeated Choices under Dynamic Externalities

We consider an economy in which a heterogeneous population of agents have to choose among a common set of alternatives. The utilities associated to the different alternatives posses a common component and an individual component, which reflect differences in the underlying structure of agents preferences. The common components are characterized by a fixed term which describe the intrinsic utility of each choice, and by a social component which depends on the actual distribution of agents across the different alternatives. We analyze the case of linear positive externalities. Assuming a simple Markovian process for the revision of the selection process, we derive the equilibrium distribution of the population of agents. We analyze in details the extremal cases of few choices and large population of agents. The proposed models can be applied to different domains of economics, like technological adoption, location of production activities, co-evolution of business models or financial decision rules. The resulting self-reinforcing dynamics can be considered an alternative formulation of the Polya urn scheme developed by Brian Arthur et al. (1986) when the possibility of choice revision is taken into account. We analyze the differences and similarity of the two approaches.Industrial Location, Agglomeration, Dynamic Increasing Returns, Markov Chains, Polya Urns.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Symmetric and Asymmetric Exponential Power Distribution

We introduce a new 5-parameter family of distributions, the Asymmetric Exponential Power (AEP), able to cope with asymmetries and leptokurtosis and at the same time allowing for a continuous variation from non-normality to normality. We prove that the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimates of the AEP parameters are consistent on the whole parameter space, and when sufficiently large values of the shape parameters are considered, they are also asymptotically efficient and normal. We derive the Fisher information matrix for the AEP and we show that it can be continuously extended also to the region of small shape parameters. Through numerical simulations, we find that this extension can be used to obtain a reliable value for the errors associated to ML estimates also for samples of relatively small size ( 100 observations). Moreover we find that at this sample size, the bias associated with ML estimates, although present, becomes negligible.Maximum Likelihood estimation, Asymmetric Exponential Power, Information matrix

On the Laplace Distribution of Firms Growth Rates

A very robust stylized fact has recently emerged concerning the distribution of growth rates of manufacturing business firms. We briefly review past analysis and present new evidence on this topic from the Italian Manufacturing Industry. We then propose a very simple model that, under rather general assumptions, provides an excellent explanation for the observed regularities. The model is based on a very simple stochastic process describing the random partition of a number of ``business opportunities'' among a population of identical firms. A theoretical result is presented for the limiting case in which the number of firms and opportunities go to infinity. Moreover, using simulations, we show that even in a moderately small industry the agreement with asymptotic results is almost complete.-

Characterizing the Production Process: A Disaggregated Analysis of Italian Manufacturing Firms

This paper provides a description of the production process by comparing different frameworks in which to analyze the relations between inputs and output. The analysis is performed on a representative sample of Italian manufacturing firms. We employ both parametric and non-parametric analysis. The last allows to detect presence of heterogeneity in the way the production is carried out within each sector. We review some traditional issues in the econometrics of production function estimation and explain how some of them can be solved exploiting the cross-sectional time-series nature of data. Results of the econometric analysis show that coefficients estimates tend to be robust with respect to different models employed. Analysis of levels of labor productivity confirms presence of significant intra-sector heterogeneity which persists over time.Input and output relation, Panel data, Returns to scale .

Exporting under financial constraints: margins, switching dynamics and prices

Using data on cross border transactions together with an informative measure of financing constraints this paper provides new evidence that limited access to external capital narrows the scale of foreign sales, the exporters? product scope and the number of trade partners. It shows that constrained firms have a reduced probability of adding and a higher probability of dropping products and destinations. Further it documents that constrained firms sell their products at higher prices as compared to unconstrained firms. All the results are robust to specific control for unobserved heterogeneity, self-selection into export and potential endogeneity of the financial constraints proxyfinancial constraints, margins of export, export prices

Productivity, Profitability and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Italian Business Firms

In this work we investigate two crucial dimensions of firms’ structure and dynamics, that is profitability and productivity performance. The empirical distributions and the associated persistence over time are explored through a set of parametric and non parametric exercises performed on an large panel of Italian firms active in both Manufacturing and Services during the period 1998-2003. The main contribution resides in the use of an index of financial risk which allows us to document that not obvious interactions are in place among economic performances, financial conditions and availability of external credit. We also offer an initial understanding about how profitability and productivity relate with a third dimension of performance, that is firm growth. We find that, independently from the particular sector of activity and from financial conditions, there seems to be little market pressure and little behavioral inclination for the more efficient and more profitable firms to grow faster.Firm performance, Profitability, Productivity, Financial constraints

Financial Fragility and Growth Dynamics of Italian Business Firms

This work explores a number of properties investigated in the empirical literature on firm size and growth dynamics: (i) the distribution and the autoregressive structure of firm size; (ii) the existence of size-growth scaling relationships; (iii) the distribution and the autoregressive structure of scaling-free growth rates. The major novelty concerns our exploiting of a credit rating index to condition all the analyses upon firms' financial fragility and access to credit. We find that the distributions of both firm size and firm growth rates are fatter tailed among less solvable firms than in the rest of the sample, both at the bottom and at the top extreme of the distributions. As a result, we conclude that not only small and/or slowly growing firms might suffer from difficulties in raising external financing, but also big and fast growing ones might be exposed to financial constraints.Firm size, Firm growth, Financial constraints

Diversification Patterns in the Growth of Firms: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing

We present empirical evidence on diversification patterns in Italian manufacturing firms and detect a robust relationship between firm size and diversification levels, with an elasticity of diversification that does not depend on firm size and is well below unity. Diversification does not lead to decreased corporate risk when measured in terms of the growth performance of Italian manufacturing firms. The findings support the Penrosian theory of diversification in the process of firm growth. In addition, we also speculate about the role of technology in the size-diversification nexus.

Some Statistical Investigations on the Nature and Dynamics of Electricity Prices

It is widely accepted that in liberalized electricity markets log-returns display fat-tailed densities. Besides qualitative assessments, so far precise characterizations of the shape of the distribution have been seldom provided. In this work, we characterize the conditional and unconditional probability density functions of daily electricity log-returns, and of the underlying shocks from the NordPool market, for each of the 24 hours, through a very flexible and general family of distributions, namely the Subbotin family. Our study contributes with novel results in the field. First, we show that price fluctuations in electricity markets are additive in nature. We do this by exploiting a scaling relationship between price level and volatility, which is in turn a new result in the electricity markets literature. Second, in line with recent studies, we uncover the existence of multiple regimes in price dynamics, and we characterize the distributional shape for each of them. Interestingly, the shocks behind electricity price dynamics are approximately Laplace if one conditions on low price levels, and closer to a Gaussian in correspondence of high initial price levels. These results are at variance with the evidence from financial markets. The peculiar non-storable nature of electricity, and the varying strength of correlations between bidding behaviors at different load levels are suggested as possible key factors behind the specificities of electricity markets outcomes.Electricity Markets, Subbotin Distribution, Laplace Distribution, Additive Process, Scaling